REPLAY – US Stock Market | S&P 500 SPY Cycle & Chart Analysis | Price Projections and Timing

Enjoy a clip from the latest episode of the askSlim Market Week.

Foreign so this is spy and we are now in what we consider to be the window and maybe a week week outside of that window where a bottoming is likely to come if you are new to our analysis uh then uh what we have here is cycle analysis on the bottom of our drawing tools which are the cycle of brackets on the top is how the cycles actually resolve themselves and

In this case where you see the yellow ovals that is where the biggest downside risk is where you see these downside what we call nesting as cycles that come down then we have this much bigger cycle in there that’s a 36 week cycle that nests way out here with these other cycles and this is where we consider the real risk to be here in the stock market for another

Very significant move to the downside but in the meantime we’ve been looking for of course the market to fall all year long except we thought that the fourth quarter would bring a time frame where there would be a opportunity for a market rebound now if you didn’t see the previous segment that i did i show nine stocks that i think will be participants with good

Risk rewards in a rebound also what’s going on right now is that you see this hammer here for the week uh where the ma where the market had a big rebound this was on thursday and i’m going to show you the daily chart also that’s all in this time frame where we think the market will be bottoming now you can see in here the reversal scouting in a moment i’m going to

Show you our other momentum indicators it’s moving down down very sharply and this has work to do to make a bottom in here now once the bottom is established and that bottom is really not going to get established until the dollar finds a peak and we think the dollar is getting ready to peak or peaking right now that’s going to give you an opportunity for a rally

What are we looking for now well we’re looking for the market to stabilize and then begin to be able to get some upside as uh just investors got sold out in here and uh some big shorts and a lot of categories begin to cover and they start to talk about the market uh the economy slowing down and inflation which has is still very strong uh the comparison number

Starting to get a lot better all of those things are likely to give the market a reason to try to rebound and we think that this is the time frame it can rebound so the bigger cycle that you see in here with think that’ll move up to sometime in january here’s the minor cycle right in here and our upside projection right over here this is around 380. so that would

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Be approximately 200 points in the s p 500 something like that that’s not very much based on this market this is kind of the middle range on those minor resistance about 393 and to me that’s a lot more likely that we’ll see that we’ll see that in the just the next number of weeks now if we come and take out this low under this 3500 level it’s going to change these

Upside projections and it’ll mean the bottom didn’t come yet uh though i think that that’s a low probability i think it’s more probable that the market is going to be able to hold up in here and that the low will have been established and i’ll show you that on the daily chart also so we’re looking for this time frame in here for a rebound and uh just looking out in

This you know three month plus time frame when this minor cycle right out over here peaks which you know lit sometime in december early in the year in january you then get into these much much more negative periods right in there and a fairly good potential that it moves down you know well into the uh under that 3350 area maybe 320 or lower than that but right now

We don’t want to focus too much on that negative period we want to really look at this period right in here where we’re likely to get a rally the uh major this intermediate resistance there is at 405 and the 38 percent is at 392. that 392 area really looks like it’s going to be a magnet to us in here over these next couple of months 405 would be under a very very

Good for performance but it could happen and again we say that to you now when the market is extremely weak and just now giving a little bit of a sign of bottoming let’s switch over to the daily chart in here and uh this is uh incredibly interesting in here what we have here is uh we’ve done a little revision in case our members are looking at this and saying it

Looks a little different to them the uh while i was working on how that timing is working on the intermediate uh chart matt sent me over his look at the daily chart uh the shorter term looking very uh carefully at a 27 day harmonic so there are shorter eight nine day harmonics in there and that’s these smaller little moves that you see right in here and there are

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Three of those minor thirds right there in each of these dominant cycles 29 and and 20 i’m sorry 9 and 27 days you can learn more about cycle analysis go to eslim.com and look at the workshop page and you’ll see that now we’re looking for a bottom in an intermediate bottom form and at the same time you can see in here we’re looking for a daily or short-term bottom

To form this engulfing that you see right over there is in line perfectly with what we were looking for on the weekly chart and normally when you get a good candlestick signal like that and let’s just take a look here at what these last signals were like that is significant and you can see in here that you got and he had an island in here that made that bottom

Here you actually had an island peak that made that top here you had an abandoned baby that made that top and here you have an engulfing pattern that looks like it’s made that bottom now this was a giant almost 200 point reversal right there in the s p 500 this pullback in here is not that strange and today on friday we’re getting a big move down again in in in

The foreign currencies uh british pound lots of turmoil there that’s giving the dollar another bid on the upside and that’s why this market’s getting sold traders are looking at the dollar every tick now if you’re an inner day trader or day trader you you’ve got to be looking at the dollar if you’re not you’re really not going to understand what’s going on in the

Market one more thing i want to note to you in here is that this is the slim ribbon right in here which is our momentum indicator and you can see in here when it was positive the market was moving up when it turned negative right in here the market was moving down when the bars are red and the slim urban po was red you’re in a negative condition and each of these

Arrows gives you uh a momentum uh resumption condition here to give you an upside resumption as it was moving up here it’s been warning of downside resumptions and it’s still red that means that the market has a lot of work to do and that’s uh what you have to be really cognizant of while we’re looking for a bottom this really looks like the bottom to us on that

Engulfing pattern that formed right over there uh it it has to prove itself out and it has to improve these momentum conditions in order to be able to get the upside move that we are now looking for projecting the middle of this resistance right over here is around 380 right there so these resistances are 372 380 and about 388 and we think that they’re going to go

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There uh after uh this panic in the uh uk market is over with if uh the if the uh banks pension funds get their positions all evened up here on friday which they’re really being pressed to do and we don’t see uk fall into the ocean uh then the market is likely to do better actually even next week so uh the despite the fact that the market’s pulling back sharply in

Here we think that this bottom is forming here where the timing is correct on the weekly chart uh and even the capitulation brought it a little bit further longer in time which is not unusual here you have a situation where looks like that bottom is beginning to form on the daily now if you get below that low which was 3 48 11. this will have changed and that’s

A good spot right over there to tell you that uh you can be looking for the market to be in trouble that’s uh way way down 348.11 which is right around here and we’ll just carry that across right there so you can see that’s uh what it has to do is get under there to violate right now what we’re looking for right now we’re looking at these time frames giving us

An idea that it should be bottoming based on everything that we have given you for this whole year this was the time frame we look for that not for a bull market for just simply a rebounding period that could last for as much as a couple of months it could last for as little as a month and if that’s the case we’ll really see the weakness there in the market so uh

That’s what we’re looking for right now and we’re going to look for the market to solidify and then give you the first gain there’s the resistance right there at 380. here’s the resistance right there at 380 on the daily here it is right over here on the weekly and uh that’s the what we’re going to be looking for breaks the load down or in that area of about 348

Then you’ll know this bottom has not formed yet so highest probability is it is forming now

Transcribed from video
REPLAY – US Stock Market | S&P 500 SPY Cycle & Chart Analysis | Price Projections and Timing By Steve Miller