Oct 21 Financial News: 10% Mortgages by Feb 2023, 2023 Going to Suck, Snap, Whirlpool, Hacker, Rent

📖 BUY One Rental at a Time

Folks michael zuber one rental at a time yes i have the one and only sunny here in my lap he wanted to make sure and say hi to you it is friday october 21st and this is your daily financial news a lot of stuff going on today a lot of stuff to talk about we are going to go uh bottoms up today just because i want to close on something stay tuned to the end i have an

Update about fridays and saturdays going forward on this channel wait for that at the end uh we will talk about that first uh there is a gentleman named christopher whalen christopher wayland is in the financial news a lot is paraded around on cnbc bloomberg msnbc all of the networks and he has come out with a call on mortgage rates he is talking about 10 percent

30-year mortgage rates come february 2023. think about that 10 mortgage rates right now today we’re kind of 73574 something like that having read his opinion and watched a couple of short youtube clips it’s an interesting call his call is basically the fed is going straight up banks are going or lenders lenders are going to be nervous about refi risk and thus the

Unusual spread that we have between the 10-year and mortgage mortgages is going to continue to stay elevated right today the the spread is over three percent historically speaking it’s one and a half to 1.7 so it’s a pretty wide um gap uh i was lucky enough to speak at a real estate meetup event yesterday in mountain view it was a lot of fun sid thank you for

The invitation thank you for the i don’t know 75 people that showed up to talk about one rental at a time we had a lot of talk about mortgage rates and this is generally my feeling mortgage rates will calm down as soon as the fed pauses i am not calling for a pivot or a cut i simply want the fed to be done as we shared yesterday i believe if the fed came out

Tomorrow yes on saturday if they hit us with two percent rise it would be a rough week it would hurt a lot of folks but at least it would be over instead of the fed doing that or rug pulling us or whatever you would call that surprise move i believe we’re going to get 75 75 50. with the 50 coming in 2023. so we’re still going to get the two percent from here

We are going to get to a terminal rate of five percent we are just gonna get there slower than i would like and it’s going to be painful but once we get to five percent perhaps five and a quarter i believe the fed pauses all year after that and then you will see the spread come down we have to get to the end we can’t we can’t race getting to the end we just we

Just have to get through it together that is my opinion so barring black swan events barring bond blow-ups or something i don’t see 10 mortgage rates i see a terminal rate of five or five and a quarter then a pause then we start coming down could we get over nine certainly i don’t think we’re over nine very long but we certainly could get there so that’s what i’m

Thinking about i don’t see ten percent mortgages by february but maybe there’s always qt qt on this channel is something that makes me nervous we have tried it before meaning selling mortgage bonds that could be an accelerator to ride to raise interest rates i don’t know it will be interesting to see it happen next ceos i said three is going to suck i believe it

Was on business insider i could be wrong but i thought i was like hey where have i heard that before 2023 is going to be a rough year we talked a lot about it last night it’s you know we’re gonna have millions of people unemployed we’re going to go from three and a half to five five and a half maybe six silicon valley where i am tech layoffs you know we’ll talk

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About snap in a minute what that means white collar versus blue collar lots of stuff going on but yes why is 20 2023 gonna suck from the ceo’s perspective well they’re going to have to work harder cost of capital is going up if you are running a company today as a ceo or cfo and you’re not producing enough cash flow or earnings you have to go to the debt market

Or the equity market and when the risk-free capital is not zero your job is harder two demand there’s a lot of demand destruction going on we’ll talk about whirlpool in a minute as a perfect example you’re going to have margin compression a lot of ceos are going to be sitting around these tables saying hey can we hit consumers with another uh price raise do we

Have to eat margin how do we how do we how do we become more efficient do you know what do we have to do it’s it’s going to be a tough business layoffs i don’t think there’s any question that layoffs are coming layoffs are never fun i was an executive at several companies who had to make those painful choices it’s the worst part of the job we’re going to have a

Lot of executives looking at spreadsheets going i don’t know what to do and then there’s going to be a lot of tough choices right we just we just heard this morning from instacart instacart was ready to go public this year they have pulled their ipo can you imagine going public in this environment so again there’s a lot of tough choices and now instacart they

Were looking for a liquidity event they were looking to have their employees and investors get this windfall they now have delayed that will they go to their capital market will they do this will they do that lots of lots of tough choices cheaper rent we have people rent on this channel for six months or so we i have been focused on apartment rents i thought

Multi-family was specifically in trouble after a conversation with beth on tuesday and further validation we could also have rent declines in single family homes not a lot it will be less but this is what i think is going on in single family we have a lot of would-be sellers not selling they are becoming first-time landlords right they have this mortgage they

Like it they keep it it’s an asset they are going to become long-term renters also airbnbs i have been particularly hard on airbnb for some of the easy money ideas that they’ve been pushing uh airbnb is a wonderful business model if you have the right product but it is not the right avenue for all single-family homes in my opinion there are going to be some airbnb

Investors who overpaid who took 2021 uh daily rates and didn’t realize it was an exception not the rule they may become landlords month-to-month landlords as well so where are the cheaper rents the five areas with the cheapest or with the largest rent drop in september san francisco 2.8 percent drop that’s number five number four san antonio texas negative 3.3

La negative 3.6 columbus ohio negative 5.7 and finally cincinnati negative 6.8 if you are watching this channel and you invest in cincinnati or columbus i would love to hear from you leave comments below uh that’s that’s five percent rent drop in one month that is pretty significant so leave some comments below so let’s talk about some earnings snap snap is uh

Not having a good go of it right there’s a lot going on with snap it’s probably pulling down facebook and google and you know all of these other kind of advertising companies but how many times have you heard hey the stocks down 80 percent the stock’s down 75 it can’t go any lower how many times have you heard that in the last 60 or 90 days i don’t know about you

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But i see some uh youtube content creators talking about it can’t go any lower it’s already down 80 well to those folks i say snap was down 77 yesterday it is now down 25 today of course they can go lower just because they’re down 80 percent from some stupid risk-adjusted return of zero and meme stock status doesn’t mean they can’t go to zero it can happen and

Some companies will go to zero so be careful i really hate that it can’t go lower attitude yes it can it can absolutely go lower next whirlpool of all the earnings yesterday whirlpool in my opinion should be eye-opening right whirlpool is an appliance maker whirlpool is involved in the housing sector whirlpool is a discretionary purchase a large discretionary

Purchase yes on occasion a refrigerator a washer a dryer brakes get it i used to sell them so i know but there’s a lot of people who over the last couple of years said hey let’s get an energy efficient blah blah let’s do let’s go get a stainless steel blah blah blah well folks it is over i believe what whirlpool is telling us if you look at the numbers first

The housing sector is slowing down no no news here but it’s the discretionary spend i look at whirlpool a lot like the apple iphone right we have i am talking to you on an apple iphone today it works it’s great i love it do i need the next one today maybe i’ll get the next one but do i need it today there’s a lot of people that have washers dryers refrigerators

So on and so forth that it is working and when we head into a recession or an environment where the consumer gets nervous it’s like you know what i really like my iphone my iphone’s good enough my refrigerator is good enough my washer dryer is good enough i think whirlpool is sending a signal to expensive discretionary consumer items my opinion but we shall see

Amex american express again reported good numbers and raised let me see where is it yeah beat top light beat bottom line and raise guidance i think what we’re seeing with american express is twofold one uh at least they used to i haven’t checked in the last 90 days american express has the highest average credit score what we are seeing is a bifurcation of the

Consumers in my opinion some folks are doing fine and spending like crazy others are trading down doing other things and i think american express points that out next csx think railroads csx again is a rel operator beat top line beat bottom line higher shipping volumes that’s good news and then finally verizon verizon beat top line beat bottom line as well so

Lots going on next week is a the big earnings week we have a lot more earnings coming next week uh so we’ll go from there uh hacker this is patrick hacker fed president he is saying we still have lots of work to do the lack of progress on inflation is disappointing expect aggressive rate heights folks this is why i think we get 75 75 50. and then the fed pauses

Again i would if i had a magic wand i would do a two percent move this weekend i would get the pain over with so we can start moving forward a couple of quick things let’s congratulate some people before i get into my final point uh we had a contest remember about home prices uh actually it’s not here i was wrong to we’re gonna give two two awards uh there were

Two folks that were close chester your book is going in the mail today chester was actually the closest his guess was within 200 of the median home price so that is a big win chester it’s coming out and then will will is getting the shirt nailed it uh will uh you were the closest to it but without going over you were within 300 of it so i decided why not we are

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A giving channel i like giving stuff away so we are going to give the book to chester that’s what he wanted will wants the shirt so he’s getting the shirt so again congratulations will and chester uh your stuff will go in the mail and then lastly john congratulations john for getting your deal done your card is going out in the mail today next up the deep dive

We are doing a deep dive tomorrow with matt the mortgage guy how to read a mortgage quote how to how to understand and compare apples to apples because we’ve seen a lot of mortgage brokers do slimy things i almost said dishonest they’re probably not technically dishonest but they are slimy so we are going to look at statements and help you get understand where

The fees are legit where they are not how they try to create apples to oranges comparisons we’re going to help you break that down so that’s tomorrow i need to send the zoom link out in the next 15 minutes which i will do it will go out in our private facebook group and i will send it on teachable it will be tomorrow morning 9 a.m tomorrow morning 9 a.m i will

Send the zoom link out and then finally uh an announcement that i’ve been thinking about for a while we have been going over a thousand days straight on this channel almost over three years over three years i what i’m going to do starting next friday and next saturday is i’m going to not record any videos we are not going to do the daily financial news we’re not

Going to do any interviews we’re not going to do deep dives instead we are going to make this channel sunday through thursday i want to have those two weeks to do whatever i want to travel do all these things so on the channel you’re going to see it go from seven days a week every day at 7 30 to sunday because i believe talking to dan bird on stocks is important

It helps us get ready for the week and then we will have all of our millionaires monday through thursday so that is a quick change i’ll talk about it a little bit more i will still have videos posted on friday and saturday they will just be videos that are recorded sunday through thursday so folks hopefully you’re cool with that uh i’ve been thinking about it for

A while uh having those two days off means olivia and i can take off thursday and go have some fun so again what you’re going to see on this channel is the daily financial news uh saturday live streams these things uh we’ll have to re-juggle and move them around so hopefully that’s okay with you hopefully you appreciate uh the early heads up but yes starting next

Friday the 28th will be the first daily financial news i didn’t do in over three years but this is not a job this is something i do for fun so i’m going to cut it back and we’re just going to go from there so hopefully that’s cool with you hope you have a great day remember do the work get your buy box ready we talked about yesterday at the real estate meetup your

Job today get a buy box look at it every day understand average so that you can rock and roll next year you have some work to do if you haven’t done it yet but yes you can do it all right folks take care chester will john congratulations bye-bye

Transcribed from video
Oct 21 Financial News: 10% Mortgages by Feb 2023, 2023 Going to Suck, Snap, Whirlpool, Hacker, Rent By One Rental at a TimeliveBroadcastDetails{isLiveNowfalsestartTimestamp2022-10-21T143146+0000endTimestamp2022-10-21T144917+0000}