Oct 14 Financial News: BIG BANKS SCARED, Retail Sales, What is Next Fed? Stock Market Bounce, Saving

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Time it is friday october 14th and this is your daily financial news a couple of quick things to do up front congratulate lincoln and samira for getting their deal done lincoln and samir congratulations your card will go out in the mail today next we are 73 people away from 39 000 39 000 is a great number if you would like to tell everybody you are part of the

First 39 000 please subscribe to the video or the channel today like subscribe comment have an amazing friday so let’s get into the daily financial news first and foremost that october 19th event that i’m hosting in fresno california that is being headlined by pace and jameel looks like you’re going to get three three and a half hours of those gentlemen on stage if

You want to be at that event my suspicion is you must buy your tickets today or over the weekend or they will be gone we have already sold over 400 tickets folks the tickets are 27 bucks you can buy them at rei collaboration.com if you’re going to be there and you are one rental at a time fan bring your book i would love to autograph take some selfies let’s have

Some fun if you’re going to be if you’re going to be at the event on the 12th my one rental at a time event or the collaboration of it leave a comment below i want to know who’s coming i want to know to see there let’s take some pictures let’s uh let’s have some fun together next let’s talk about the fed i’ve been thinking about this a lot the last 24 hours

Cpi came out hot came out hot across the board the jobs number from earlier the week before hotter than expected the fed has already raised rates 300 basis points um there’s a lag effect there’s lots of stuff going on i want to share with you if you haven’t seen already what was my expectation for the fed and then i want to share with you what i’m currently

Thinking this is all happening in real time so first what was my thoughts really for the last two months for the last two months i thought we would get 75 on november 2nd i thought we would get 50 on december 14th i thought we would get 25 at the first meeting next year and then i thought the fed would pause i thought the fed hey would get us to four and a half

Then they would chill at this point i haven’t completely gotten there yet but this is what i’m thinking let me know what you think of the following i now think without a doubt we get 75 on november whatever it is 13th or 14th in fact i think the up the upside might be um a full 100 but i just don’t think powell has the guts november 2nd november 2nd sorry so we

Get 75. then i think we get another 75 in december that would be five 75 basis point moves in a row unheard of unheard of then i think we’re going to get 50 at the first meeting and then we get 25 at the second meeting of 2023 and then we pause i think jerome powell and his fed cronies want a stair step like that that’s what i currently believe so where would

This take us so if this gets us to four and a half this gets us to four and three quarters gets us to oh five oh that gets us to five and a quarter a terminal rate of five and a quarter i’m not willing to put that out there just yet but i’m willing to say that four and a half terminal rate is probably not enough the fed the fed’s going to take us to five percent

Will it take us to five and a quarter maybe maybe so let me know what you think where do you think we go i’d love to see your guesses on the terminal rate terminal rate if five means what the ten years at six and a half the mortgages are at eight i don’t know this is all all very very interesting stuff so that’s what i’m thinking here what a wild ride for the

Stock market yesterday uh i believe when we did our daily financial news i think it was down 500 i think it was down mainly because cpi and inflation proved to be too hot and then it ended the day up like i don’t know 900 on the dow something like that first and foremost very happy i’m not a stock trader because i’d be my hair would be even more gray uh but uh

Wow what a wild ride the only thing that i can think of again not a stock guy but going into yesterday there was a lot of negativity the put call ratio was really really bad there were a lot of people betting on a bad number i believe they got their bad number then they started cashing in their profits and unfortunately the one-sided bets were so much that if

You didn’t get out early the buying just ended up turning your winner into a loser can you imagine calling it right putting real money on the put side or you think it’s going down driving to work turning into your turning on your computer an hour later or whatever it is and you’re and you’re losing money i think that happened to a lot of people who had to close

Their position out but yeah yesterday was a crazy ride if you have an article that you think explains yesterday’s crazy intraday swing leave a link below uh i’d love to see what other people are thinking again i’m trying to learn and gain experience in the stock market just like all of you banks so we had bank earnings today we will go through them there are four

But i want to recall or remind you of something we talked about last week i was going to be very interested to see if banks reserved for bad debt banks get nervous banks reserved for bad debt banks lend less also you were seeing banks actually earn interest jp morgan has over a trillion dollars of cash they are earning three percent interest at this fed over

Reverse repo every day it’s crazy what is going on banks are earning with just letting money sit there so what do we got thanks uh jp morgan beat top line beat bottom line reserved for bad debt 808 billion dollars jp morgan jamie diamonds not playing around jamie diamond put 808 billion dollars aside for bad debt morgan stanley missed top line miss bottom line

Their investment banking was very weak down 50 percent i did not find a number for reserve for bad debt i’m sure it’s in there but i did not find it if you see it out there let me know leave a comment below i’d love to know how much morgan stanley set aside citigroup city group uh uh citigroup beat top light beat bottom line citigroup put 370 million dollars away

And i might have said 808 billion i made i’m at 808 million my bad 808 million i think i said billion that’s crazy million for jp morgan citigroup 370 million wells fargo beat top line beat bottom line they set aside 784 million dollars for uh loan losses so just between jp morgan wells fargo and citigroup three banks they set aside what’s that one five one

Eight three almost almost two billion dollars almost two billion dollars in one quarter banks are getting nervous not only are banks setting aside for reserves but banks are now reducing credit availability credit availability is at a nine year low something we’ve talked about on this channel there’s a lending cycle and a housing cycle lenders get scared lenders

Don’t lend that’s why when you can borrow dion you go get the money and then you sit on it for a little while that’s an inside joke for the folks that uh watch the channel dion if you’re watching you know what we’re talking about buddy retail sales retail sales came out and it basically flat retail sales headline which includes oil or gas and food uh was flat

Expectations were for a growth of two percent or 0.2.2 percent core so x gas x food was actually up 0.1 where it was expected to be down so retail sales generally speaking stronger than expected we are still spending kroger uh kroger is buying albertsons for 24.6 billion dollars i believe that is a cash transaction can you imagine wiring 24 billion dollars be a

Little nervous sending that wire man crazy but again kroger i believe is so i believe it’s walmart kroger costco albertsons the top four grocery stores so number two is buying number four uh to con to compete with walmart and costco better and then savings uh americans are burning through their savings we talked about having 2.3 trillion dollars in excess savings

We are burning through it at a rapid rate it is not going to get better is it is it consumers buying airline tickets for delta and united and american are they doing services are they just trying to put food on the table pay rent it is it’s it’s interesting right needs versus once protect yourself get close to revenue beyond me is laying off 18 of their workforce

Folks remember yesterday or the day before tree of fear opportunity right the forest of opportunity you are going to see people probably talk about beyond meat laying off 18 percent that is without a doubt a scary scary number if you turn it over you will realize that’s about 200 people not that 200 people is not unfortunate and if you’re one of those 200 people

I feel for you but there will be people that try to scare you with numbers like 18 percent it’s roughly 200 people right so that’s the kind of stuff going on at the end of the day the last thing to talk about is not this saturday not tomorrow but a week from tomorrow we will be doing our next deep dive we are going to do our deep dive with matt the morgan sky you

And i are going to understand how to read a mortgage quote look at it understand all the fees we are going to make sure that we are never taken advantage of again there are lots of people uh that like to uh play with the numbers to make it look like a good deal but it really isn’t we’re going to hear about box a and then all the other fixed costs so i look forward

To learning uh from at the mortgage guy if you’re one of my students you will see a zoom invite next week if you’re just a fan of the channel you will see that video sunday morning at 9 00 a.m right here all right everybody take care of yourself have an amazing day bye bye

Transcribed from video
Oct 14 Financial News: BIG BANKS SCARED, Retail Sales, What is Next Fed? Stock Market Bounce, Saving By One Rental at a TimeliveBroadcastDetails{isLiveNowfalsestartTimestamp2022-10-14T143126+0000endTimestamp2022-10-14T144429+0000}