Oct 17 Financial News: Forecast Existing Home Sales, Gloomy, 08 vs 23 surprise, Peloton, Teledoc

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Uber one rental at a time it is monday october 17th and this is your daily financial news for those of you that tuned in yesterday you saw my team son or team happy shirt well of course i got to take care of my boy sunny and represent him today so of course gotta wear team sunny today next up let’s congratulate andrew andrew congratulations for getting your great

Deal your card will go out in the mail all right let’s get started with the daily financial news let me read to you what i got this morning that didn’t even make the board there’s so much stuff to talk about today first and foremost i’ve got some research about average bear markets uh and i thought i would share with them uh these are average bear markets since the

1930s for to give you some context the average bear market number of days 318 the average bear market drop negative 38 so 38 percent drop the bear market that wrecked me in 2000 the bear market of 2000 was 637 days it was just a painful slow grind it ultimately capitulated 49 all the way down 49 percent 2020. yes folks we had a bear market in 2020 if you guys

Remember that v-shaped bottom you are not mistaken the bear market of 2020 was a whopping 23 days 23 days the the decline in 2020 was 34 percent so why do i give you all of that i want to give you context of where we are today today we sit at 300 um that’s not right i wrote 318 that’s not right i believe the answer was 288 days so we are getting close to the

Average duration and the average drop is 25 so again we are we are below average and again the one that was painful for me was 2637 days painful mark zandy man mark zandy’s been all over my daily financial news first mark zandy is coming out saying inflation will be cut in half in four months i’m sorry in six months i’m guessing a lot of that is what’s called

The base effect right we are letting go of little numbers we are getting rid of bigger numbers definitely could help uh now he is saying that a recession a recession did not occur in q1 q2 of this year but it will occur in q3 q4 of next year so again inflation gets cut in half in six months and we have a recession next year those are calls from mark zandy fannie

Mae fannie mae came out with an article uh talking about their expected home sales for 2023. folks fannie mae’s original forecast was 5.02 million sales next year if you’ve been following my channel you know that i expect sub 4 million we were we disagreed by one million well fannie mae has now updated their forecast their forecast now is 3.93 million they too are

Below 4 million sales and then lastly bank of america reported this morning bank of america beat top line beat bottom line on fixed income trading and then again the most important thing i was looking for was credit reserves remember the banks that reported on friday two billion dollars put away for bad debt well add 898 million on top of that we are now sitting

At roughly three billion dollars in credit reserves these are things that banks use when they get scared to help manage future numbers so again bank of america uh all right so now let’s talk about what’s on the board uh i did a video yesterday because i saw my youtube feed uh basically trying to compare 2023 with 2008. there’s a lot of things going on saying hey

2023 is going to be just like 08 so of course we brought up the 50-year spreadsheet there’s a couple of takeaways from that video one oh eight was not really the painful year if you’re going to compare to one year in that crisis you would be better off comparing 09. 09 is when we saw nine percent drop in housing 09 is when we saw a 30-some percent drop in the s p

500.08 really wasn’t that bad so if you’re going to be out there as a content creator and compare 2023 with 08 do yourself a favor talk about 09 instead that’s one second what you may not realize is that 08 wasn’t an event it wasn’t a year the great recession was four or five years in the making it was a just it was just a slow grind lower so if you were going

To go out there and tell your audience that 2023 is going to be like 08 or 09 please change that to 2023 is going to be like the great recession or 08 to 2011 or 2012. again if if your idea is hey it’ll happen faster this time i think that’s reasonable i think that’s fair to say but let’s let’s make the comparison at least accurate and then as i was going through

The numbers my number one surprise or takeaway and if you watch the video you saw me kind of uncover this the big takeaway for me was wage inflation from 08 to 2012 which was a five-year duration we saw wage inflation nominal nominal wage inflation of 1.2 percent for that entire period there were years where nominal wage inflation was negative i believe and

You’ve heard me say it on this channel for months that we are going to have wage inflation the next three four five years not only we’re going to have nominal wage inflation we will have real wage inflation so i believe one of these surprising outcomes is going to be just how robust wage inflation is i believe over a four or five year period you will see wage

Inflation 2022 to 2026 of 15 16 17 combined that is one of the reasons that i feel that housing won’t have this fall off a cliff but like always we will see i think the chances that we have one percent growth for five years i don’t i don’t see it i don’t see it so that was a big takeaway next the economist yes folks oh i don’t know a magazine that i used to get

Shipped or delivered or whatever that right word is to my house uh was the economist it’s a really really boring and dry read but on occasion they put out some very interesting articles uh one they just put out was americans are feeling gloomy remember folks i follow the consumer because the consumer can pivot the market all by themselves the economist according

To the economist 50 percent of americans are looking for financial are feeling financial hardship one-third are having difficulty paying for everyday things however as a group we are still spending right that’s the totality spending our savings and adding credit we’re we’re reducing our savings and increasing our use of credit that has a very limited runway that

Does not bode well for the future right so again the savings only lasts so long credit access only lasts so long and it’s interesting when you look at bank of america’s earnings the ceo said consumer is strong they have maintained elevated deposits i was curious folks peloton and teledoc looking at peloton and teledoc these are companies that were pandemic darlings

They are favorites of arc k and kathy wood if you go and look at their market cap i think peloton’s like 2.4 2.5 billion i think teledoc is like 4.6 maybe somewhere around there at what at what point do these companies get acquired i think both could get acquired by apple and or amazon i think that’s where these companies these companies especially peloton has a

Great a monthly revenue stream i believe somebody will take them out uh they will be part of a much bigger company my guess is apple or amazon when does it happen no idea will it happen no idea but when you look at the market cap you you have to imagine that somebody’s at least thinking about it right all right now for the big fun of the day existing home sales

On thursday october 20th we will get existing home sales from national association of realtors remember way back in july i said this was the report that changed housing october 20th we have four numbers to talk about i’m going to give you my guess i actually wrote them down so you and i can be held or i could be held accountable i would love to hear from you what

Are your expectations for thursday folks we’re just guessing we’re having some fun if you play along with me leave a comment below so existing home sales again this will be an annualized number right they will take the september sales they will annualize the number so expectations are 4.69 million last month just so you know 4.8 million 4.8 million so they are

Expecting less what did i guess i guess 4.55 million so my guess is we are going to go down to 4.55 million this is a little interesting because some of these closings will actually benefit from the july rate drop right rate locks 45 day close some of those could be in september so again was 4.8 expectations 4.69 i’m going to guess 4.55 next uh me uh next what

Are we doing months of inventory right months of inventory as you will see in a minute i think inventory is going down but months of inventory is going up how can that be demand is being crushed we are seeing supply and demand destruction like we haven’t experienced since 1981. so months of inventory 3.2 i’m gonna guess um 3.8 that’s actually a really big jump

Month on month 3.8 but what the heck we’re having fun it’s just a guess now inventory inventory these are active listings active listings active listings were 1.28 million uh i am going to guess 1.26 so i believe inventory is going to go down i actually think inventory will go down bigger next month but this is still kind of that end of summer season so i will

Expect inventory to go down and now price price price this is the number i missed last month i was wrong i was wrong by like 15 grand or 16 grand i was way off what are the expectations on price well i believe again the median home price across the country will be what did i write down what did i write down oh i’m going to stick to my guns i’m going to call 391

000. so up ever slightly that’s probably like i don’t even think that’s half a percent but i’m going to pick up just because again i think uh we are seeing a lot less transactions we are seeing kind of uh a mix changing so we shall see what’s going on so again what do i have i’m gonna guess lower transactions higher months of inventory less inventory and just

For fun i’m gonna guess median home price went up about a i guess it’s 1500 bucks 391. let me know what you think probably the most important one is price lots of you like to guess price with me what do you think what do you think the median home price will be leave comments below last month’s was 389 500. again i’m gonna guess 391. i’m a glutton for punishment so

We will see what happens folks have a wonderful day andrew one more time congratulations for getting your deal we will mail your card today take care everyone bye bye

Transcribed from video
Oct 17 Financial News: Forecast Existing Home Sales, Gloomy, 08 vs 23 surprise, Peloton, Teledoc By One Rental at a TimeliveBroadcastDetails{isLiveNowfalsestartTimestamp2022-10-17T142956+0000endTimestamp2022-10-17T144447+0000}