September U.S. retail sales remain unchanged, miss economist forecasts

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Foreign we’re also tracking retail sales out this morning retail sales remaining unchanged in september missing economist forecasts of a 0.2 percent rise here and so with regard to all of the different data that’s come out on the front of retail more broadly or the prices that consumers are paying here and trying to get an answer to the question of whether or not

Inflation has peaked and where consumers are still having to buy in and in certain categories necessities that’s still remaining strong and rightly so but it’s really some of the discretionary areas that we have to keep a close eye on especially going into the holiday season to see where there might be that pullback in consumer sentiment or spending propensity within

Those particular parts of the industry as well as guys i wish you could see my my notepad i have so many notes uh this morning because it’s crazy but i think that one of them that really ties everything together the bank earnings and retail sales again this is really now we’re getting new evidence of how the uh how the fed is starting to impact this economy and

It looks like i mean it really is starting to happen in a big way zoom into this retail sales report you see weakness in furniture sales you see weakness in auto sales like we just mentioned uh over at a wells fargo uh in their most recent quarter these are big ticket purchases that tend to go on credit cards uh by and large not necessarily going into a furniture

Store and plopping down ten thousand dollars to go buy a couple new couches in a recliner so the cost of buying these items is going up significantly and it looks like consumers just say you know what i’m just not buying this stuff for whatever reason maybe i don’t need it maybe last year i would have went out and bought it because financing costs were cheaper

But this is a big problem and it’s going to be a big problem for for retailers and this economy moving forward and now you on better understand i would argue while the micro market continues to be in a very just in a bear market continues to be under significant pressure is because of stats and real-time things that are happening to consumers just like we saw in

This retail sales report yeah and i want to marry that as well so it’s too some of the bank earnings that we were talking about because jane frazier city ceo actually outlined it and talked about the personal banking side and specifically within that the card spending saying that u.s personal banking further solidified its growth trajectory double-digit revenue

Growth in both of their cards businesses and what that should signify especially with the correlation of how consumers are spending is that they are leaning further into some of their card spending right now to try and figure out okay how do we then make sure that our cash pile if we do have a strong balance sheet or just trying to solidify our balance sheets at

Home that we still have cash that we can lean on to uh in the event of an emergency in the event of some other circumstances and just wanted to mention by the way if you exclude motor vehicles parts and gas the number actually saw more of an acceleration so that’s just something to point out here if you look at the so-called control group it saw four tenths of a

Percent advance which is better than estimating there were revisions higher for the prior months so this is not all bad news here within this and you did see increases in areas such as non-store retailers i.e e-commerce department store sales up 1.3 percent right where did that come from i don’t know but yes there were some areas of increase so just to make coming

From kohl’s julie not coming from kohl’s well it’s coming from somewhere obviously yeah i don’t know but um we don’t get that that granularity here we just wanted to put a fine point though on as we get this data that does show okay we’ve got hot inflation okay we’ve got retail sales that are moderating in some areas the market has just been going crazy for lack

Of a better term here or just really having these wild volatile swings on a day-to-day basis and again to come back to what we saw yesterday take a look here at the wi-fi interactive which i have pulled up and just just that enormous swing the dow really the prime example of this opening up sharply lower yesterday down by 500 points here after we got that cpi that

Came in hotter than estimated showing that the fed and cementing the base case among wall street that the fed is going to raise 75 base points and then somehow coming back by day’s end are things oversold had stocks priced in the scenario for the fed being super aggressive maybe i don’t know i mean that who knows if it was a fundamental move that we saw yesterday in

Markets or if it was merely a snapback and there are all the groups in the s p 500 that we saw yesterday with financials leading the gains which maybe also with some you know preliminary buying ahead of today’s numbers but it’s still a confusing move to me you know there’s a lot to take away though from even the early earnings that we’ve received this week whether

It’s delta and the demand that they’re seeing that demand is different than some other businesses would be seeing because as they were lining up and ed bastion telling us that it’s counter cyclical the airline’s recovery right now versus some other parts of consumer spending and then you get even more of the consumer data sure a lag on the economic data but then

Also a little bit forward-looking and what we can actually extrapolate from some of these bank earnings as well whether that’s most uh the the most credit touching banks or whether that’s the banks that are giving out home loans or auto loans and that really gives us even more of the insight into how different companies are going to be interfacing with consumers

Even throughout this potential recession and what that may look like as the consumers are looking to kind of sure up their own confidence as well leading into that

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September U.S. retail sales remain unchanged, miss economist forecasts By Yahoo Finance